"So there are Oliphaunts. But no one at home will ever believe me."
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Tumble

Well, it’s nice to see that I was at least able anticipate the market correctly for once.  What are the odds of that, something like 50%?

The MSCI World Index of stocks erased its 2010 gain, the euro slid to a 14-month low and Treasuries gained on concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening. Losses in U.S. equities were limited as data showed growth in jobs and service industries.

I did not, however, have the strength of conviction to liquidate all of my holdings and purchase vast stocks of something guaranteed to hold its value in any calamity, such as rare single malt Scotch.

(From “Stocks, Euro Tumble on Debt Concern; S&P 500 Losses Limited – Bloomberg.com“, via .)

May 5, 2010   1 Comment

Greece and the Euro

From Megan McArdle, links to a couple of articles on the sovereign debt crisis, and how it all played out last time around. It’s worthwhile to read as many of these as you can stomach—the Yves Smith article is especially good.

The Great Depression was composed of two separate panics. As you can see from contemporary accounts–and I highly recommend that anyone who is interested in the Great Depression read the archives of that blog along with Benjamin Roth’s diary of the Great Depression–in 1930 people thought they’d seen the worst of things.

I’ve felt since the stock market started to rebound in the middle of last year that we were just passing through the eye of the storm. If I were a more active investor I might have taken some medium-to-long term short positions on… everything.

(From “Greece and the Euro: Going, Going . . . “, via Instapundit.)

April 29, 2010   Comments Off